Nonlinear identification of judgmental forecasts effects at SKU level
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Measuring the Accuracy of Judgmental Adjustments to SKU-level Demand Forecasts
The paper shows that due to the features of SKU (stock-keeping unit) demand data wellknown error measures previously used to analyse the accuracy of adjustments are generally not advisable for the task. In particular, percentage errors are affected by outliers and biases arising from a large number of low actual demand values and correlation between forecast errors and actual outcomes. It is al...
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All judgmental forecasts will be affected by the inherent unreliability, or inconsistency, of the judgment process. Psychologists have studied this problem extensively, but forecasters rarely address it. Researchers and theorists describe two types of unreliability that can reduce the accuracy of judgmental forecasts: (1) unreliability of information acquisition, and (2) unreliability of inform...
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We analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKUlevel forecasts for a variety of pharmaceutical products for October 2006 to September 2007. We study the behavior of the...
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Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods of estimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in the recent literature uses dispersion among experts’ forecasts. However, there has been limited empirical validation of this methodology. In this paper we provide a general methodology for estimating the standard d...
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1.0 overview it seems that grammar plays a crucial role in the area of second and foreign language learning and widely has been acknowledged in grammar research. in other words, teaching grammar is an issue which has attracted much attention to itself, and a lot of teachers argue about the existence of grammar in language teaching and learning. this issue will remind us a famous sentence f...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2010
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.1184